Cover Story
2009 Power & Influence List: The Top 10
The 10 most powerful and influential New Zealanders overall in 2009.
1. John Key
(2005 9th, 2006 9th, 2007 3rd, 2008 1st)
PRIME MINISTER
The state-house boy has had a dream run since taking occupancy of the state house, scoring historically high approval ratings, and being identified by leadership scholars as pioneering an entirely new style of political leadership in this country. Sceptics may cite his pragmatism as evidence of overt risk-aversion, but so far his reasonable, moderate demeanour and light-handed management has worked magic for the Government’s standing. He has been the polar opposite of Helen Clark, resisting both the micromanagement of others’ portfolios and playing favourites in the caucus. His cheerful tolerance of coalition partners’ ructions – “The bulk of people who come into politics have type-A personalities!” – has saved National from being embroiled in their crises. However, the compulsive deal-maker in him may have cost him the opportunity – while his novelty value and popularity are still high – to take the bold, voter-testing measures that may be needed to shore up the economy. His management so far suggests he is more centre than centre-right. Distinctive, National-flavoured reforms on his watch have been comparatively few: the move towards national standards in schools, comparative ratings for hospitals, Judith Collins’ emblematic car-crushing law, proposed pruning of accident compensation. Other measures have been contradictory and confusing – notably the preferential forestry deal for select iwi in exchange for Maori Party support of the Emissions Trading Scheme. Although Key acted decisively in his first personnel crisis – Richard Worth – he has not dealt swiftly enough with struggling ministers – notably Nick Smith and Anne Tolley – whose missteps stand to do long-term damage to the Government. Key’s challenge will be to keep voters convinced his pragmatism is part of a steady-handed overarching vision – and perhaps he might start to ration the number of times he responds to a political crisis by saying, “I’m pretty relaxed, actually.”
2. Bill English
(2007 5th, 2008 2nd)
FINANCE MINISTER
If there was an unluckier time to become finance minister of a small, currency- and trade-buffeted country than now, it’s hard to imagine it. Bill English has resisted the policy lurches or desperate jawboning that could have made our recession experience even worse, so his tenure has to be rated a success so far. However, his real test is to come. Famously cautious, he has been taking his time weighing up his reform options – far too much time, according to the business and agricultural sectors. It’s hard to fault English’s decision to consult widely and – perhaps most importantly – soften up the electorate, and his boss, before taking what will be lifetime make-or-break decisions for the economy. John Key is known to be resistant to sweeping fiscal reforms, whereas English – egged on by many in the National Party and Act – is leaning towards stiffer measures. By tacitly licensing Treasury Secretary John Whitehead to run a Tough Love public-speaking campaign, English has given himself room to push for some far-reaching measures, including extra taxes. Similarly, pending advice from expert panels on tax and productivity – who are already telegraphing recommendations such as a capital-gains tax – will strengthen his arm for the ultimate argument in the Cabinet and caucus. Whether the ambient tension between himself and Key turns out to be a healthy relationship based on the contestability of ideas, or your more common or garden toxic battle of political wills, remains unknown until those reform decisions are made. Bad luck and bad judgment marred English’s reputation when he was found to be claiming rent for his family trust-owned home. This made him the poster boy for the media’s open season on politicians’ troughing – a position he bitterly resented, remonstrating with media bosses about unfair treatment. Still, thanks to TVNZ 7, English is the only Power Lister to have had his own infomercial run – for free, and repeatedly – on primetime television.
3. Alan Bollard
(2004 4th, 2005 4th, 2006 10th, 2007 6th, 2008 3rd)
Reserve Bank Governor
As the world financial system imploded in late 2008, the central banker responded quickly and decisively to limit the damage to a vulnerable New Zealand economy. Alan Bollard dropped the Official Cash Rate further and faster than ever before – from 8.25% in early 2008 to 2.5% early this year, providing the economy with a massive stimulus. Many more mortgaged-to-the-hilt Kiwis would have lost their homes had he not cut so aggressively. Just as important were measures to keep the banking system liquid in the face of the crisis, including widening the range of securities banks could use to access cash from the Reserve Bank. His team also helped the Government rapidly draw up the retail and wholesale deposit-guarantee schemes, and early in the year he hit the international financial capitals with Treasury boss John Whitehead and Finance Minister Bill English to reassure the markets that New Zealand was a safe place to invest. And, in a world-leading move, he is forcing the banks – which were highly dependent on the short-term international money markets that froze up after the Lehman Brothers collapse last year – to increase their longer-term funding. Bollard’s steady hand has helped marshal the economy through a stressful and difficult year, the panel agreed.
===4.Rodney Hide== =
(2008 7th)
ACT Leader
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